酌定子女親權之重要因素：以決策樹方法分析相關裁判

黃詩淳; 邵軒磊

doi:10.6199/NTULJ.201803_47(1).0005

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P299 - 344

社会科学 > 法律学

DOI： 10.6199/NTULJ

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酌定子女亲权之重要因素：以决策树方法分析相关裁判

What Factors Determine Child Custody in Taiwan? Using Decision Tree Learning on Court Decisions

黄诗淳(Sieh-Chuen Huang) ；邵轩磊(Hsuan-Lei Shao)

台大法学论丛； 47 卷 1 期 (2018 / 03 / 01) ， P299 - 344

繁体中文 DOI： 10.6199/NTULJ.201803_47(1).0005

亲权；子女最佳利益原则；单独亲权；实证研究；法资讯学；资料探勘；决策树； child custody ； best interests of the child ； sole custody ； empirical legal study ； legal informatics ； data mining ； decision tree learning

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摘要 │ 参考文献 (67) │ 被引用文献 (12) │ 国际计量

摘要〈TOP〉

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The doctrine of ＂best interests of the child＂ has been guiding courts in determining custody cases after divorce in Taiwan since 1996. In addition, Article 1055-1 of Taiwan Civil Code requires that the judge consider factors such as the age, sex, and wishes of the child; the age, occupation, character, health condition, economical condition, and the life style of the parents etc. These factors are numerous and have no order of priority, a vague standard that gives judges wide discretion to exercise their own viewpoints on what is best for the child. Therefore, although in Taiwan empirical legal studies are not widely adopted by researchers including family law scholars, the issue of child custody is an exception, in which a small amount of research has been done to explore the law in action. Previous research adapted descriptive statistics and used a Pearson's chi-square test to analyze court cases to determine which factors that judges tend to consider. Nevertheless, a very simple yet significant question has not been answered: among these factors, which one or ones takes the top priority in Taiwanese judges' minds? Relying on the development of computer algorithms, this question becomes possible to answer. This essay collects 448 cases from 2012 through 2014, involving 690 children whose parents were both Taiwanese and willing to acquire the custody, and in which the Taiwanese district court granted one parent sole custody. Using decision tree learning, one of the predictive modelling approaches used in statistics, data mining and machine learning, this article concludes that ＂primary caregiver＂, ＂child's wish,＂ and ＂parent-child interaction＂ are the three most significant factors considered by judges in Taiwan. The model's accuracy is 94.41% in its training set and 95.17% in its test set, meaning the model is quite optimal. In the custody disputes addressed by judicial decision, the mother seems to have overwhelming supremacy: in our dataset, mothers had more than an 80% likelihood of receiving sole custody. Also, the majority of the cases in Taiwan are those in which the mother is the current caregiver and the child prefers the mother. Meanwhile, the most significant factor a judge considers is ＂primary caregiver＂, suggesting that the reason that mothers are given custody more easily than fathers is simply because in most cases they are already the primary caregivers. This reality does not fundamentally challenge the patriarchal norms that place motherhood in subordination to fatherhood. Finally, although ＂occupation and economic resources of the parents＂ was once considered an important factor in child custody in 2000 and still widely accepted by the public, our analysis does not identify it as significantly affecting judges' decisions nowadays. This observation allows legal scholars and judges to identify a case as typical or exceptional. Divorce lawyers can also preliminarily assess their clients' chances at winning divorce lawsuits and propose the most optimal dispute resolution strategy. Overall, the outcome of custody litigation may be less uncertain.

参考文献 ( 67 ) 〈TOP〉

李立如(2010)。论离婚後父母对未成年子女权利义务之行使负担：美国法上子女最佳利益原则的发展与努力方向。欧美研究，40(3)，779-828。
连结：
李立如(2012)。亲属法变革与法院功能之转型。台大法学论丛，41(4)，1639-1684。
连结：
周歆凯、苏喜、黄兴进、蔡明足、翁林仲(2006)。运用决策树技术探讨急诊病患医疗费用之消耗。台湾公共卫生杂志，25(6)，430-439。
连结：
林琬真、郭宗廷、张桐嘉、颜厥安、陈昭如、林守德(2012)。利用机器学习於中文法律文件之标记、案件分类及量刑预测。中文计算语言学期刊，17(4)，49-67。
连结：
张永健、李宗宪(2015)。身体健康侵害慰抚金之实证研究：2008 年至2012 年地方法院医疗纠纷与车祸案件。台大法学论丛，44(4)，1785-1842。
连结：

被引用文献 ( 12 ) 〈TOP〉

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