以尖點劇變模型探討油價與高鐵折扣票價對城際運具選擇行為之影響

Exploring the Effects of Oil Price and HSR Ticket Discounts on Intercity Modal Choice Behaviors Based on a Cusp Catastrophe Model

10.6402/TPJ.201209.0253

郭奕妏(Yi-Wen Kuo)

油價 ； 高鐵折扣票價 ； 運具選擇行為 ； 移轉障礙 ； 尖點劇變模型 ； Oil price ； HSR ticket discounts ； Model choice behavior ； Switching barrier ； Cusp catastrophe model

運輸計劃季刊

41卷3期（2012 / 09 / 30）

253 - 278

繁體中文

因應高油價代的來臨與綠色運輸政策的推動，本研究課題著重於探討小汽車與高鐵兩城際運具間，受運具使用成本差價影響下的競爭關係。有別於過去研究多採線性個體選擇模式，本研究嘗試應用尖點劇變模型，試著從非線性觀點分析城際旅運者的運具選擇行為，並了解可能存在的非線性特微，同時採定量與定性分析方法。實證研究主要針對高鐵市場的潛在旅客小汽車駕駛人進行問卷調查，共蒐集614份長程旅次樣本。有關運具行為模型的校估，係以運具選擇意向作為狀態變數，至於控制變數之正則因子與分裂因子則分別設定為運具使用成本差價移轉障礙，並檢定控制空間中六個區域的樣本結構分布比例的差異性，進一步解釋運具選擇行為可能產生之發散性、突變性、滯後性與雙重性等劇變特微，以及其於行銷管理應用上之意涵。駕駛人認知的移轉障礙較高，且當油價漲至34元／公升以上，趁勢搭配6折以下的高鐵票價折扣優惠時，運具選擇行為最易發生不連續變化現象。

Realizing the effects of the price difference between cars and high speed rail on drivers' modal choice behavior is a crucial issue for making intercity travel decisions. Differing from previous studies, in which discrete choice models were used to discuss drivers' modal choice behavior, this paper attempts to apply the cusp catastrophe model to discuss drivers' modal choice behavior under various modal price scenarios and describe their non-linear characteristics through quantitative and qualitative analysis. According to the empirical study, the questionnaire survey that was conducted received 614 valid samples from freeway drivers who travel long-distance in Taiwan. The proposed behavioral model used ”modal choice intention” as the state variable while ”switching barrier” and ”modal price difference” were used as the splitting factor and normal factor of the control variable, respectively. The test of independence was performed to check sample structures for six areas of the control space, and the catastrophe characteristics (such as divergence, catastrophe, hysteresis, and bimodality) of switching behavior were discussed. A higher switching barrier would easily cause discontinuous behavior especially while encountering higher oil prices (NT$34/Iitre) with 60% discounts implemented for HSR tickets.

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1. 郭奕妏(2015)。小汽車駕駛人對高速公路電子收費eTag 服務之使用意願分析。運輸計劃季刊，44(3)，215-242。
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